US Spot ETF Net Flows
Its available data spans too little history for any confirmed-tier call - the observed correlations below are regime-bound and are reported, not chained. A verdict this early would be a guess, so there isn't one.
What it claims to measure
Net capital flow (liquidity)
Definition and source
- Formula:
daily net flow USD, sum all US spot ETFs - Data source:
farside.co.uk(confirmed) - Signal history in the matrix: 120 weeks
Observed correlations vs tested instruments
| Versus | Spearman rho | Window | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| mvrv-z-score | +0.613 | 120 weeks | provisional / below threshold |
| nupl | +0.593 | 120 weeks | provisional / below threshold |
| power-law | +0.588 | 120 weeks | provisional / below threshold |
Confirmed means the correlation held at |rho| ≥ 0.85 over at least four years AND in both halves of the window independently. Anything less is reported but never used to assign a verdict.
Registry notes
history from 2024-01 launch only: PROVISIONAL statuses per DR-004 sec 3
Challenge this status
Every status here is falsifiable. If you can demonstrate this instrument decorrelates from its assigned representative - or measures a phenomenon we have missed - it earns its own full trial, and the record publishes either way. The petition channel opens with the public repository.