The Census
Every famous indicator. One map. Live verdicts.
Each indicator below is registered with a fixed formula and named public data source, then earns a status through evidence - never through fame. Statuses update as trials complete. Updated 2026-07-22.
Admitted · Primary1
Passed the full admission pipeline - pre-registered, reproducible, independent, validated - and serves as its field's primary instrument.
| Bitcoin Power Law | V1 | P_fair = A * d^B; signal = (ln P - ln P_fair) / sigma |
Tested · Rejected2
Faced the full pre-registered admission test and failed it. The complete record - formulas, thresholds, results - is public.
| MVRV Z-Score | V2 | (MC - RC) / expanding_std(MC); AR-001 point-in-time form |
| NUPL | V2 | 1 - 1/MVRV |
Echo8
Rank-correlates at confirmed tier (≥ 0.85 across 4+ years and both halves of the window) with an instrument that has already faced a full trial. It inherits that verdict: it is not independent evidence. Any echo can petition for its own trial by demonstrating decorrelation.
| 2-Year MA Multiplier | V1 | echo of mvrv-z-score (rho 0.963, 12y confirmed) |
| 200-Week MA Heatmap | V1 | echo of mvrv-z-score (rho 0.868, 10y confirmed) |
| Delta Cap | V2 | echo of nupl (rho 0.919, 12y confirmed) |
| Golden Ratio Multiplier | V1 | echo of nupl (rho 0.864, 13y confirmed) |
| MVRV Ratio | V2 | echo of nupl (rho 0.998, 14y confirmed) |
| Rainbow Chart | V1 | echo of power-law (rho 1, 14y confirmed) |
| Thermocap Multiple | P1 | echo of power-law (rho 0.886, 14y confirmed) |
| Top Cap | V2 | echo of mvrv-z-score (rho 0.938, 12y confirmed) |
Insufficient history4
Its available data spans too little history for any confirmed-tier call - the observed correlations below are regime-bound and are reported, not chained. A verdict this early would be a guess, so there isn't one.
| Realized Price | V2 | RealizedCap / SplyCur |
| Reserve Risk | V3 | PriceUSD / HODL bank (opportunity-cost accumulator) |
| RHODL Ratio | V3 | RCap-HODL 1w / RCap-HODL 1-2y, age-band ratio |
| US Spot ETF Net Flows | L1 | daily net flow USD, sum all US spot ETFs |
Untestable today2
No free, reproducible, historically deep source exists. Under our reproducibility standard this cannot be tested honestly yet - so we say so, rather than quietly omitting it.
Awaiting trial55
Registered - formula and source fixed - and awaiting either its own admission run or its cluster representative's verdict.
| 10y Real Rate (TIPS) | M2 | DFII10 |
| Active Addresses | A1 | AdrActCnt (raw driver series) |
| Aggregate Corporate BTC Holdings | T1 | sum of disclosed holdings, all public treasury companies |
| Aggregate Stablecoin Supply | L1 | totalCirculatingUSD, all stablecoins |
| Balanced Price | V2 | RealizedPrice - TransferredPrice (needs CDD) |
| Bitcoin Dominance | S3 | BTC market cap / total crypto market cap |
| Broad Dollar Index | M4 | DTWEXBGS |
| BTC-SPX Rolling Correlation | M3 | rolling 90d corr of daily log returns |
| Chicago Fed NFCI | M3 | NFCI (weekly) |
| CME Annualized Basis | S2 | front-month futures premium, annualized |
| Cohort Median mNAV | T2 | median mNAV across MSTR, XXI, MTPLF, MARA, BLSH, SMLR |
| Coin Days Destroyed | V3 | sum(coins moved * days held) |
| CVDD | V2 | cum(value-days destroyed in USD) / (age * 6M) |
| Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow | V3 | MC / annualized dormancy value |
| ETF Cumulative Holdings | L1 | cumsum(net flows) / PriceUSD, vs SplyCur |
| Exchange Netflow | L2 | FlowInExUSD - FlowOutExUSD |
| Fear & Greed Index | - | proprietary composite (volatility, momentum, social, dominance, trends) |
| Fed Net Liquidity | M1 | WALCL - WTREGEN - RRPONTSYD |
| Global M2 Composite | M1 | USD-converted M2 sum: US + EU + JP + CN |
| Gold (BTC correlation context) | M3 | daily close; base = rolling 90d BTC correlation |
| Google Trends: bitcoin | S4 | weekly search interest, US+worldwide |
| Hash Ribbons | P1 | SMA30(HashRate) vs SMA60(HashRate) regime |
| High-Yield Credit Spread | M3 | BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| HODL Waves | V3 | supply age-band shares |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | M5 | monthly diffusion index; popular claim: level/direction tracks or leads BTC yoy returns by ~3-6 months |
| Liveliness | V3 | cum CDD / cum coin-days created |
| Long-Term Holder MVRV | V2 | cohort MVRV, coins moved >= 155d |
| Long-Term Holder SOPR | S1 | SOPR, outputs >= 155d |
| Mayer Multiple | V4 | PriceUSD / SMA200(PriceUSD) |
| Metcalfe Ratio | A1 | CapMrktCurUSD / AdrActCnt^2 |
| Miner Revenue | P1 | IssTotUSD + FeeTotNtv * PriceUSD (raw driver series) |
| MOVE Index | M3 | bond-vol index, daily close |
| NVT Ratio | A2 | CapMrktCurUSD / on-chain transfer value USD |
| NVT Signal | A2 | CapMrktCurUSD / SMA90(transfer value USD) |
| Perp Funding Rate (BTCUSDT) | S2 | 8h funding, 7d mean |
| Pi Cycle Top | - | cross of SMA111 and 2 * SMA350 |
| Prediction Market BTC Odds | S5 | probability-weighted year-end price expectations |
| Puell Multiple | P1 | IssTotUSD / SMA365(IssTotUSD) |
| Realized Cap | V2 | CapMrktCurUSD / CapMVRVCur |
| Short-Term Holder MVRV | V2 | cohort MVRV, coins moved < 155d |
| Short-Term Holder SOPR | S1 | SOPR, outputs < 155d |
| SOPR | S1 | spent output price sold / price paid |
| Stablecoin Supply 90d Growth | L1 | 90d pct change of aggregate stablecoin supply |
| Stock-to-Flow | V1 | model price = exp(a) * (SplyCur / annualized issuance)^b |
| Strategy BTC Yield (BTC/share growth) | T2 | qoq growth in BTC per fully-diluted share |
| Strategy mNAV | T2 | MSTR fully-diluted mcap / (BTC holdings * PriceUSD) |
| Strategy Preferred Yields (STRK/STRF/STRC/STRD) | T2 | effective yield on listed preferreds |
| Terminal Price | V2 | TransferredPrice * 21 (CDD-based) |
| Treasury Cohort Net Purchases (weekly) | T1 | d/dt aggregate holdings |
| Treasury Purchases vs Miner Issuance | T1 | cohort weekly purchases / (IssTotNtv weekly sum) |
| US M2 Money Supply | M1 | M2SL (monthly; yoy growth as base) |
| US Spot ETF Net Flows | L1 | daily net creations/redemptions USD, all US spot ETFs |
| Value Days Destroyed Multiple | V3 | VDD / 365d median VDD |
| VIX | M3 | VIXCLS |
| Yield Curve 10y-2y | M4 | T10Y2Y |
How to read this page
Only a full pre-registered admission run can admit or reject an instrument. The census screens everything else: an echo inherits the verdict of a tested instrument it tracks at confirmed tier; anything short-history stays insufficient rather than being classified on one regime of data; anything without a reproducible source is declared untestable instead of quietly skipped. Every number regenerates from public data - the method, thresholds, and code are in the open repository.