ISM Manufacturing PMI
Registered - formula and source fixed - and awaiting either its own admission run or its cluster representative's verdict.
What it claims to measure
No economic phenomenon claimed
Definition and source
- Formula:
monthly diffusion index; popular claim: level/direction tracks or leads BTC yoy returns by ~3-6 months - Data source:
public-dataset(probe) - Signal history: not yet in the matrix - data being sourced
Registry notes
The macro-Bitcoin claim of this cycle (Raoul Pal et al). ISM data is PROPRIETARY - removed from FRED in 2016; a reproducible carrier (candidate: DBnomics) must verify before screening, else reproducible proxies carry M5: Chicago Fed CFNAI and INDPRO yoy (both FRED, keyless, deep history). Effective BTC-macro overlap ~1 decade: verdicts PROVISIONAL-leaning by construction.
Challenge this status
Every status here is falsifiable. If you can demonstrate this instrument decorrelates from its assigned representative - or measures a phenomenon we have missed - it earns its own full trial, and the record publishes either way. The petition channel opens with the public repository.