ΦBitcoin Field Theory

The Census

Metcalfe Ratio

Awaiting trial

Registered - formula and source fixed - and awaiting either its own admission run or its cluster representative's verdict.

What it claims to measure

User-base growth (adoption)

Definition and source

Observed correlations vs tested instruments

VersusSpearman rhoWindowTier
power-law+0.381732 weeksprovisional / below threshold
nupl+0.344732 weeksprovisional / below threshold
mvrv-z-score+0.332732 weeksprovisional / below threshold

Confirmed means the correlation held at |rho| ≥ 0.85 over at least four years AND in both halves of the window independently. Anything less is reported but never used to assign a verdict.

Registry notes

Q3 tentpole adjacent: formal Metcalfe test

Challenge this status

Every status here is falsifiable. If you can demonstrate this instrument decorrelates from its assigned representative - or measures a phenomenon we have missed - it earns its own full trial, and the record publishes either way. The petition channel opens with the public repository.

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