10y Real Rate (TIPS)
Awaiting trial
Registered - formula and source fixed - and awaiting either its own admission run or its cluster representative's verdict.
What it claims to measure
Real discount rates (macro)
Definition and source
- Formula:
DFII10 - Data source:
fred-fredgraph-csv(confirmed) - Signal history in the matrix: 813 weeks
Observed correlations vs tested instruments
| Versus | Spearman rho | Window | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| power-law | -0.204 | 732 weeks | provisional / below threshold |
| mvrv-z-score | -0.168 | 732 weeks | provisional / below threshold |
| nupl | -0.144 | 732 weeks | provisional / below threshold |
Confirmed means the correlation held at |rho| ≥ 0.85 over at least four years AND in both halves of the window independently. Anything less is reported but never used to assign a verdict.
Challenge this status
Every status here is falsifiable. If you can demonstrate this instrument decorrelates from its assigned representative - or measures a phenomenon we have missed - it earns its own full trial, and the record publishes either way. The petition channel opens with the public repository.