RHODL Ratio
Insufficient history
Its available data spans too little history for any confirmed-tier call - the observed correlations below are regime-bound and are reported, not chained. A verdict this early would be a guess, so there isn't one.
What it claims to measure
Holder age (valuation)
Definition and source
- Formula:
RCap-HODL 1w / RCap-HODL 1-2y, age-band ratio - Data source:
bitcoin-data.com(confirmed) - Signal history in the matrix: 106 weeks
Observed correlations vs tested instruments
| Versus | Spearman rho | Window | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| nupl | +0.81 | 106 weeks | provisional / below threshold |
| mvrv-z-score | +0.774 | 106 weeks | provisional / below threshold |
| power-law | +0.728 | 106 weeks | provisional / below threshold |
Confirmed means the correlation held at |rho| ≥ 0.85 over at least four years AND in both halves of the window independently. Anything less is reported but never used to assign a verdict.
Registry notes
V3 competition candidate (vs reserve-risk)
Challenge this status
Every status here is falsifiable. If you can demonstrate this instrument decorrelates from its assigned representative - or measures a phenomenon we have missed - it earns its own full trial, and the record publishes either way. The petition channel opens with the public repository.