Top Cap
Rank-correlates at confirmed tier (≥ 0.85 across 4+ years and both halves of the window) with an instrument that has already faced a full trial. It inherits that verdict: it is not independent evidence. Any echo can petition for its own trial by demonstrating decorrelation.
What it claims to measure
Cost basis (valuation)
Definition and source
- Formula:
35 * expanding_mean(CapMrktCurUSD) - Data source:
coinmetrics-community-api(derived) - Signal history in the matrix: 628 weeks
Observed correlations vs tested instruments
| Versus | Spearman rho | Window | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| mvrv-z-score | +0.938 | 628 weeks | CONFIRMED |
| power-law | +0.916 | 628 weeks | CONFIRMED |
| nupl | +0.903 | 628 weeks | CONFIRMED |
Confirmed means the correlation held at |rho| ≥ 0.85 over at least four years AND in both halves of the window independently. Anything less is reported but never used to assign a verdict.
Registry notes
the 35x constant is a fitted free parameter - V4 parsimony flag
Challenge this status
Every status here is falsifiable. If you can demonstrate this instrument decorrelates from its assigned representative - or measures a phenomenon we have missed - it earns its own full trial, and the record publishes either way. The petition channel opens with the public repository.